Big 12 Football Predictions 2017
By Matt Hetzler
#1T Oklahoma State 11-1
Coach: Mike Gundy
Offensive Coordinator: Mike Yurcich Defensive Coordinator: Glenn Spencer Stadium: Boone Pickens Stadium (60,218) 2015 Record: 10-3 The Breakdown Offense: Oklahoma State returns one of the most prolific passing offenses in the country for 2017. Mason Rudolph returns for his senior season and will be looking to get Oklahoma State in the CFB playoff. Rudolph threw for 4,091 yards and 28 TD’s to only 4 INT’s. He’s easily one of the best passing QB’s in the nation. Justice Hill had one heck of a freshman season, rushing for 1,142 yards and 6 TD’s. James Washington also returns for the Pokes. Washington hauled in 71 receptions for 1,380 yards, an average of 19.4 yards per catch. Jalen McCluskey had more receptions than Washington with 73. A veteran offensive line will help keep Rudolph protected. Defense: Oklahoma State’s defense has a pretty easy job when the offense is putting up 39 ppg. Still, there are questions on the Cowboys defensive squad. With only 5 starters returning, the Cowboys will need some younger players to step up. Oklahoma State will be solid on the front 4 with Tralund Webber, Cole Walterscheid and Jarrell Owens rushing the edge. Chad Whitener is the leader of the defense and is coming off a 71 tackle performance in 2016. CB Adrian Baker transfers in from Clemson and is joined by fellow seniors Tre Flowers and Ramon Richards. Special Teams: . Matt Ammendola hit his only FG attempt last season from 53 yards. Zach Sinor was an All-B12 performer last season. The junior averaged 42.8 yards per punt. Overview: Oklahoma State is looking to get to the B12 title game and even earn a berth into the CFB playoffs. There is no denying that the Cowboys will have one of the best offenses in the nation. A week 3 trip to Pittsburgh could be a tough game but will set the tone for the season. Back to back road games at Texas and West Virginia could decide their fate in conference. Bedlam has been moved up this season to the first week of November, I assume to make sure they don’t play back-to-back weeks. Mike Gundy has done a heck of a job with this program and one more double digit win season is in the works. Oklahoma State is my favorite to win the B12. |
Top Returners:
Offense: Passing Mason Rudolph, SR, QB Rushing Justice Hill, SO, RB Receiving James Washington, SR, WR Defense: Interceptions: Ramon Richards, SR, DB Sacks: Tralund Webber, SR, DE Tackles: Chad Whitener, SR, LB Last Five Year Win Totals 2016 10-3 2015 10-3 2014 7-6 2013 10-3 2012 8-5 |
#1T Oklahoma 10-2
Coach: Lincoln Riley
Offensive Coordinator: Bill Bedenbaugh, Cale Gundy Defensive Coordinator: Mike Stoops Stadium: Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (84,389) 2016 Record: 11-2 The Breakdown Offense: Oklahoma has arguably the best QB in the country in Baker Mayfield. His numbers last year were absolutely insane. Mayfield completed 71% of his passes for 3,965 yards and 40 TD’s. Mayfield added 6 TD’s on the ground as well. Looking back to last season, Mayfield would’ve been my Heisman winner, making him my front runner for this season. OU lost a ton of playmakers from last season, including their top two RB’s (Mixon, Perine). Rodney Anderson/Abdul Adams will get the bulk of the carries. TE Mark Andrews is the leading receiver returning. Andrews finished with 7 TD receptions and 31 catches. Jeff Badet is a grad transfer from UK and could fill the role of DeDe Westbrook. Jeff Mead is a staggering 6’5” target, who finished with 10 catches a season ago. Look for these two guys to have breakout seasons. All 5 OL return including All-American LT Orlando Brown. Defense: Oklahoma will be in a great spot defensively with 7 starters returning. Kenneth Mann is only a sophomore but I’m looking forward to see how he plays on the defensive edge. OU usually gets its pressure from the LB position and that’s exactly what Ogbonnia Okoronkwo did last season. The senior LB led the Sooners with 9 sacks and 71 tackles. Emmanuel Beal is another senior LB who will have a monster season. Beal is the leading tackler coming back from the ‘16 defense. Special Teams: Austin S iebert returns for his junior season in Norman. Siebert didn’t convert on a FG over 40+ yards and finished 11-16. Siebert was better punting the ball, finishing with a 41.1 average. Overview: Bob Stoops stepped aside last in the summer to the surprise of many. Lincoln Riley now handles the program and has a roster loaded with talent. Baker Mayfield is out of this world good and I expect him to be in NY for the Heisman ceremonies. I really like what the Sooners bring defensively as well. A week two trip to Columbus highlights one of the best non-conference games of the season. A win over Ohio State and OU will be a mortal lock for the CFB playoffs even with a loss. OU visits Baylor, Kansas State and Bedlam at Oklahoma State. I have OU and Oklahoma State with 1 conference loss with a rematch in the title game. If OU beats Ohio State and gets a B12 Title with only 1 loss, they'll be in the CFB playoffs. |
Top Returners:
Offense: Passing Baker Mayfield, SR, QB Rushing Abdul Adams, SO, RB Receiving Mark Andrews, JR, TE Defense: Interceptions: Jordan Thomas/Steven Parker Sacks: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, SR, LB Tackles: Emmanuel Beal, SR, LB Last Five Year Win Totals 2016 11-2 2015 11-2 2014 8-5 2013 11-2 2012 10-3 |
#3 TCU 9-3
Coach: Gary Patterson
Offensive Coordinator: Sonny Cumbie, Curtis Luper Defensive Coordinator: Chad Glasgow Stadium: Amon G. Carter Stadium (45,000) 2016 Record: 6-7 The Breakdown Offense: Kenny Hill has these Horned Frogs thinking B12 title in 2017. Hill made some bad decisions last season which is why they finished 6-7. Hill still had a very good year with over 3,200 passing yards and 600 rushing yards. If Hill can cut down on some of his mistakes he could make a run at a Heisman Trophy. Kyle Hicks is back for TCU after a 1,042 yard rushing season. Hill has tremendous talent at the WR position returning. Taj Williams was a big play receiver, averaging 18 yards per catch. Defenses can’t fall asleep on the speedy KaVontae Turpin either. TCU also returns 4 starters on the offensive line. Defense: TCU returns some of its top players from a solid defense last season. TCU finished in the top half of the B12 in total defense and will only improve this season. SS Travin Howard led the Frogs with 130 tackles in ‘16. MLB Ty Summers was right behind Howard in the tackle count with 121. LJ Collier and Chris Bradley combined for 8 sacks from the DT position. Nick Orr led TCU with 4 INT’s and FS Niko Small added 83 tackles and 9 PBU’s. This is going to be an extremely talented defense. Special Teams: Jonathan Song will handle the kicker duties and Adam Nunez returns as punter for the Horned Frogs. Overview: I was high on TCU last season and they let me down big time. I am throwing my support behind the Frogs for a 2nd consecutive season. I’m not picking them to win but they were in the conversation and could make an appearance in the championship game. TCU has one of the best offenses in the country and the defense should improve on last season. The schedule is tough for TCU with road games at Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Oklahoma. A 9-10 win season isn’t out of the picture and should be expected by Frog Nation. |
Top Returners:
Offense: Passing Kenny Hill, SR, QB Rushing Kyle Hicks, SR, RB Receiving Taj Williams, SR, WR Defense: Interceptions: Nick Orr, SR, DB Sacks: LJ Collier, JR, DT Tackles: Travin Howard, SR, LB Last Five Year Win Totals 2016 6-7 2015 11-2 2014 12-1 2013 4-8 2012 7-6 |
#4 Kansas State 8-4
Coach: Bill Snyder
Offensive Coordinator: Dana Dimel Defensive Coordinator: Tom Hayes Stadium: Bill Snyder Family Stadium (50,000) 2016 Record: 9-4 The Breakdown Offense: Jesse Ertz returns for his senior season as play caller for the fighting Bill Synder’s. Ertz is your typical dual threat QB, low completion % but a ton of yards from his legs. Ertz rushed for over 1,000 yards and combined for 21 TD’s in ‘16. Alex Barnes enters his sophomore season with a bigger role. Barnes received the 4th most carries but averaged a solid 7.9 yards per rush. The Wildcats also return its top two WR’s from last season. Bryon Pringle led the way with an outstanding 16.2 yards per catch and 631 receiving yards. Four offensive lineman return. Defense: Kansas State had the top defense in the B12 last season and returns 6 starters. Sophomore Reggie Walker will fill the role left by Jordan Willis. Walker finished 2nd on the team with 6.5 sacks. The defensive front will be strong despite new starters at the LB position. Kansas State’s strength will be in the secondary. CB DJ Reed was phenomenal in 2016. Reed leads all returners with 75 tackles but added 16 PBU’s and 3 INT, earning all B12 honors. Special Teams: Matthew McCrane returns for his senior season as kicker. McCrane finished ‘16 11-14 with a long of 42. Fellow senior Nick Walsh will handle the punting duties once again. Overview: I didn’t hop aboard the K-State train last season and was burned by the Wildcats. Bill Snyder continues to outdo expectations year in and year out. This season, I’ve wised up and really like K-State’s chances of making a run at a B12 title. Ertz will only continue to be better heading into his senior season and the offense is full of experience. The defense is equally as ready to make a run in the conference, after being one of the best last season. K-State gets Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma and WVU all at home. The November 18th showdown at Oklahoma State could decide a spot in the B12 title game. I wouldn’t sleep on this team or be surprised if they made a dark horse run at the CFB playoff. |
Top Returners:
Offense: Passing Jesse Ertz, SR, QB Rushing Jesse Ertz, SR, QB Receiving Byron Pringle, JR, WR Defense: Interceptions: DJ Reed/Duke Shelley Sacks: Reggie Walker, SO, DE Tackles: DJ Reed, JR, DB Last Five Year Win Totals 2016 9-4 2015 6-7 2014 9-4 2013 8-5 2012 11-2 |
#5T Texas 7-5
Coach: Tom Herman
Offensive Coordinator: Tim Beck Defensive Coordinator: Todd Orlando Stadium: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (100,119) 2016 Record: 5-7 The Breakdown Offense: Tom Herman comes into Austin looking to turn around the Longhorn program right now. Texas had one of the top rushing attacks in the nation in 2016, but leader rusher D’Onta Foreman has departed. QB Shane Buechele returns for his sophomore season. Buechele showed flashes of excellence in his freshman campaign and finished with nearly 3,000 passing yards and 21 TD. Chris Warren will be asked to fill Foreman’s shoes, after a 2,000+ rushing season. Warren averaged 5.9 yards per carry on just 62 attempts in ‘16. Armanti Foreman, SO’s Devin Duvernay and Collin Johnson are the top Longhorn receivers returning. The offensive line returns 4 starters from a year ago. Defense: Texas returns 10 starters from last season’s squad. The Longhorns struggled to say the least, finishing in the bottom half of the B12 conference in most categories. Malik Jefferson is the top playmaker on the defensive side and is virtually a lock to forgo his senior season. Jefferson is just one of the front 7 all returning this season. Malcolm Roach will be one of the top players to make the jump into superstardom on this roster. The secondary is loaded with veteran players, including leader Jason Hall. Special Teams: Joshua Rowland transfers in from the JUCO ranks to take over the starting kicker position. Michael Dickson is regarded as one of the top punters in the nation. Dickson was an All-American with a 47.6 punt average. Overview: Texas has all the resources to be a perennial top 10 program but hasn’t been there in quite some time. Tom Herman inherits a talented group on offense and an experienced defense ready to make some noise in the B12. There is a ton of momentum heading with the Longhorns but I feel they are still a year away from winning the conference. Texas can make some headlines with a win at USC in week 3 and the B12 schedule is favorable towards the Longhorns. I could easily see Texas at 9 wins and playing in a big bowl game this season. |
Top Returners:
Offense: Passing Shane Buechele, SO, QB Rushing Chris Warren, JR, RB Receiving Armanti Foreman, SR, WR Defense: Interceptions: Edwin Freeman/PJ Locke Sacks: Malik Jefferson, JR, LB Tackles: Anthony Wheeler, JR, LB Last Five Year Win Totals 2016 5-7 2015 5-7 2014 6-7 2013 8-5 2012 9-4 |
#5T Baylor 8-4
Coach: Matt Rhule
Offensive Coordinator: Jeff Nixon, Glenn Thomas Defensive Coordinator: Phil Snow Stadium: McLane Stadium (45,140) 2016 Record: 7-6 The Breakdown Offense: Sophomore QB Zach Smith will be the starter for the beginning of the Matt Rhule era at Baylor. Smith played well in his 4 starts as a true freshman. Smith completed 59% of his passes for 1,526 yards and 13 TD’s. Smith will need to cut down on some of the turnovers. Terence Williams led Baylor in rushing with 1,048 yards and 11 TD’s in ‘16. Baylor has to replace its top two receivers but sophomore Blake Lynch will be special this season. Chris Platt is the leading returning receiver after pulling in 35 catches for 567 yards. The offensive line will be experienced with 3 starters returning. Defense: Seven starters return for the Baylor Bears on defense. LB Taylor Young leads the way with 93 tackles from a season ago. DE KJ Smith finished ‘16 with a team high 7 sacks and a respectable 67 tackles from the end position. Travon Blanchard is another top performer returning off a team high 7.5 tackles for loss in ‘16. The secondary is young with 3 sophomore starters and could be troublesome in the pass heavy B12. Special Teams: Sophomore Connor Martin will get the call at kicker this season. Drew Galitz returns at punter for the Bears. Overview: Baylor has been plagued by the ongoing investigation of player/coach conduct. The investigation has cast a dark shadow around what was one of the premier football programs in the country. Matt Rhule did a great job at Temple and now takes over a program that needs to get back on top. I really like the talent on both sides of the ball. Baylor could surprise a lot of people this season. Baylor gets Oklahoma at home in the B12 opener, a win there could set the tone for the remainder of the schedule. Visits to KState, Oklahoma St and TCU will be hard games. WVU and Texas come to Waco, in what should be wins. I see Baylor as an 8 win team but will finish in the middle of a crowded B12. |
Top Returners:
Offense: Passing: Zach Smith, SO, QB Rushing Terence Williams, JR, RB Receiving Chris Platt, JR, WR Defense: Interceptions: Davion Hall/Clay Johnston Sacks: Taylor Young, SR, LB Tackles: Taylor Young, SR, LB Last Five Year Win Totals 2016 7-6 2015 10-3 2014 11-2 2013 11-2 2012 8-5 |
#5T West Virginia 6-6
Coach: Dana Holgorsen
Offensive Coordinator: Jake Spavital Defensive Coordinator: Tony Gibson Stadium: Milan Puskar Stadium (60,000) 2016 Record: 10-3 The Breakdown Offense: WVU wasn’t overpowering on offense last season, but were balanced and consistent. This type of offense led the Mountaineers to 10 wins and saved Dana Holgorsen. There’s a new big man on campus in Morgantown and it’s former Florida QB WIll Grier. Grier was having a tremendous season for the Gators in ‘15 before being suspended for the remainder of the season. Grier will have leading rusher Justin Crawford back in the fold. Crawford was a beast running the ball in ‘16, 1,184 rushing yards with a 7.3 ypc. Ka’Raun White and big 6’5” Dominique Maiden will be the top targets for Grier in the passing game. Defense There will be plenty of new faces on the defensive side for the Mountaineers. Only 3 starters return and will rely heavily on a mix transfers and young guns. The linebackers all remain with senior Al-Rasheed Benton leading the way. Sophomore DE’s Adam Shuler and Reese Donahue must set the tone for this D. CB Corey Winfield is the most experienced player in the secondary coming over from Syracuse. Special Teams: Senior kicker Mike Molina returns. Molina converted 15-22 FG’s with a long of 50 in ‘16. Billy Kinney posted a respectable 41.7 yards per punt. Overview: WVU has the pieces to be competitive in the B12 this season. Will Grier should thrive under Holgorsen’s system. WVU opens with a tough game against Virginia Tech. Many questions that I have will be answered after that game. WVU’s B12 road schedule is tough with trips to TCU, Baylor, KState, and Oklahoma, all teams that I have above or tied with WVU. WVU could play spoiler to the hopes of Oklahoma State’s quest for a B12 title in late October. WVU won’t be at the top of the B12 this season but in the middle after the season. |
Top Returners:
Offense: Passing Will Grier, JR, QB Rushing Justin Crawford, SR, RB Receiving Ka’Raun White, SR,WR Defense: Interceptions: N/A Sacks: Kyzir White, SR, LB Tackles: Al-Rasheed Benton, SR, LB Last Five Year Win Totals 2016 10-3 2015 8-5 2014 7-6 2013 4-8 2012 7-6 |
#8 Texas Tech 4-8
Coach: Kliff Kingsbury
Offensive Coordinator: Eric Morris Defensive Coordinator: David Gibbs Stadium: Jones AT&T Stadium (60,454) 2016 Record: 5-7 The Breakdown Offense: Texas Tech must find a way to replace many top players from the 2016 roster. Most notably will be the departure of Pat Mahomes and top WR Jonathan Giles. Nic Shimonek will get the call at QB and showed how capable he is at QB in limited action. RB’s Da’Leon Ward and Justin Stockton should see an uptick in carries with the departure of Mahomes. Keke Coutee, Dylan Cantrell, and Derek Willies combined for 23 total TD’s last season. The offensive line is going to be young with 3 sophomores and a freshman starting. Defense: Texas Tech scored 55 and 59 points in contests last season and lost both. Texas Tech was once again, one of the worst defenses in the country. They allowed 43.5 ppg and 554.3 ypg, YIKES. 6 starters at back from that squad, including leading tackler SO Jordyn Brooks. Tech will get back one of its top players from two seasons ago in Dakota Allen. Allen is a playmaker, so expect a big year from him. Jah’Shawn Johnson leads the secondary, returning from a 77 tackle and 2 INT performance in ‘16. Special Teams: Clayton Hatfield returns at kicker after a solid sophomore season. Hatfield converted on 13-14 FG’s for the Red Raiders. Michael Barden was one of the worst punters in the B12 last season, will need to improve. Overview: Nic Shimonek has some big holes to fill at QB but TTU always does well through the air. The biggest concern every year is on the defensive side of the ball. It’s hard to watch as a Red Raider fan. A defense that gives up 66+ points in 3 contests is an abomination. The return of Dakota Allen will be big for the defense. Arizona State and Houston will be tough competition for TTU in the non-conference. Oklahoma State, TCU and KState all visit Lubbock this season. Road trips to WVU, OU and Texas will be tough. I have TTU around 4-5 wins at the most. Kliff Kingsbury may be on his way out, if they don’t reach a bowl. |
Top Returners:
Offense: Passing Nic Shimonek, SR, QB Rushing Da’Leon Ward, SO, RB Receiving Keke Coutee, JR, WR Defense: Interceptions: Jah’Shawn Johnson, JR, DB Sacks: 4 players with 1 Tackles: Jordyn Brooks, SO, LB Last Five Year Win Totals 2016 5-7 2015 7-6 2014 4-8 2013 8-5 2012 8-5 |
#9 Iowa State 5-7
Coach: Matt Campbell
Offensive Coordinator: Tom Manning Defensive Coordinator: Jon Heacock Stadium: Jack Trice Stadium (61,500) 2016 Record: 3-9 The Breakdown Offense: Jacob Park will resume his role as the Cyclones starting QB. Park did well in his limited playing time in ‘16. Park completed 59% of his passes for 1,791 and 12 TD’s. Iowa State has a solid 1-2 punch at RB in David Montgomery and Mike Warren. Allen Lazard was one of the top receivers in the B12 last season. Lazard hauled in 69 receptions for 1,018 yards and 7 TD’s. Lazard will be playing on Sunday’s next year. Questions on the offensive line, will temper expectations early in the season. Defense: Iowa State needs to cut down on the points they allow per game in ‘17. The Cyclones allowed 31.3 ppg, 8th in the B12. DE JaQuan Bailey is a player to watch up front. Bailey heads into his sophomore season looking to build on his 3.5 sacks and 23 tackles. Willie Harvey led the Cyclones in tackling in ‘16 with 78. Former QB Joel Lanning was moved to LB to provide some depth. Everett Edwards is a grad transfer from Duke rounding out the LB unit. The secondary should continue to improve under the leadership of Kamari Cotton-Moya. Special Teams: Garrett Owens joins Kansas from Oregon State. Owens hit 32-45 FG’s in his career with the Beavers. Colin Downing will return as the punter for the Cyclones. Overview: Offensively the Cyclones should be able to surprise some teams in ‘17. Park has some experience under his belt and plenty of offensive weapons at his disposal. The defense should be much improved with top guys back at key positions. Iowa State has a good chance to start the season 3-0 before hosting Texas in the B12 opener. Road contests at Oklahoma, WVU, Baylor and Kansas State will be tough. Iowa State is going to be better in ‘17, but 4-5 wins will be the ceiling for this team. I continue to leave them at the bottom of the B12 for now. |
Top Returners:
Offense: Passing Jacob Park, JR, QB Rushing Mike Warren, JR, RB Receiving Allen Lazard, SR, WR Defense: Interceptions: Kamari Cotton-Maya, SR, DB Sacks: JaQuan Bailey, SO, DE Tackles: Willie Harvey, JR, LB Last Five Year Win Totals 2016 3-9 2015 3-9 2014 2-10 2013 3-9 2012 6-7 |
#10 Kansas 3-9
Coach: David Beaty
Offensive Coordinator: Doug Meacham Defensive Coordinator: Clint Bowen, Kenny Perry Stadium: Memorial Stadium (50,071) 2016 Record: 2-10 The Breakdown Offense: Kansas struggled offensively last season. There will be plenty of new faces this year but none bigger than QB Peyton Bender. Bender was once in the air raid offense at Washington State and brings plenty of firepower to Lawrence. RB Octavius Matthews is another player to watch coming from the JUCO ranks. Bender will have two very strong receivers to throw to. Steven Sims led the Jayhawks with 72 catches, 859 yards and 7 TD’s. LaQuvionte Gonzalez added 62 catches and 729 yards. Daylon Charlot is another player to keep an eye on at WR. 4 offensive lineman return giving hope to fans in Lawrence for better results in ‘17. Defense: Kansas loses some of its top players from a year ago but returns some its stars as well. Junior DE Dorance Armstrong had one heck of a year. Armstrong led the Jayhawks with 10 sacks, 56 tackles and was a 1st team B12 talent. Sophomore Mike Lee is the top returning tackler after a successful true freshman season. Kansas will once again rely on JUCO players coming into starting roles. Special Teams: Freshman Liam Jones will start at kicker for the Jayhawks. Punter Cole Moos had a respectable 41.4 average in his junior season. Overview: Kansas ended Charlie Strong’s tenure as Texas coach with a shocking upset of the Longhorns late in the season. A win like that could potentially turn the tide for this stagnant program. For the better part of the last decade Kansas has been a bottom feeder in all of college football. Kansas will be tested by Central Michigan and Ohio in the non-conference. Kansas has a tough B-12 slate with road trips to TCU, Texas and Oklahoma State. Kansas will need to get it done vs TTU and at Iowa State if they want to improve from 2-10. This Jayhawks team will be better, especially on the offensive side, but not enough to make noise in the B12. |
Top Returners:
Offense: Passing Carter Stanley, SO, QB Rushing Taylor Martin, JR, RB Receiving Steven Sims, JR, WR Defense: Interceptions: Mike Lee, SO, DB Sacks: Dorance Armstrong, JR, DE Tackles: Mike Lee, SO, DB Last Five Year Win Totals 2016 2-10 2015 0-12 2014 3-9 2013 3-9 2012 1-11 |