College Football Week 4 Preview
By Matt Hetzler 9/20/2016
Week 4 is here and it is jampacked with great matchups. Week 4 has some sneaky good games for the Saturday slate. We had to leave some really good games off the list. It’s a big weekend in the SEC with 3 games featuring ranked opponents. Can Florida State bounce back from an embarrassing loss to Louisville? Does the losing coach in the Tiger Bowl put the final nail in his coffin? Stanford faces its first true test of the season at UCLA. Wisconsin has a chance to prove they aren’t a fluke with a road trip to East Lansing. These are some of the storylines that will make up another exciting weekend of college football. Enjoy!
Below are 15 games that are on my slate of games to watch. Tyler (Mr. Arena Fanatic) and I will give our predictions for each game. Here we go!
Tyler’s totals after week 3: 24/46 (52%)
Matt’s totals after week 3: 30/46 (65%)
Quick Hits:
5 Clemson (-9.5) @ Georgia Tech
Clemson has started slow out of the gate, looked better in a 59-0 win over SCSU. Justin Thomas has the Yellow Jackets 3-0 with wins over BC and Vandy. GT can certainly hang in this game and I think they will but ultimately come up a little short.
Tyler’s pick: Clemson 35-24
Matt’s pick: Clemson 30-27
USC @ 24 Utah (-3)
USC is making a change at QB with redshirt freshman Sam Darnold replacing Max Browne. That spells trouble against a very good Utah defense and a hostile environment. Williams needs to make better decisions for the Utes but I think the defense smothers the USC offense.
Tyler’s pick: USC 27-23
Matt’s pick: Utah 24-13
Penn State @ 4 Michigan (-18.5)
Michigan was tested for a half against Colorado last Saturday. Wilton Speight has played really well in the Wolverines first 3 contests. Saquon Barkley and Chris Godwin have to make plays for Penn State if they want to have a chance in this game.
Tyler’s pick: Michigan 32-20
Matt’s pick: Michigan 38-14
3 Louisville (-25.5) @ Marshall
Lamar Jackson has been on fire in the first 3 weeks of the season. Louisville heads to Marshall after the 60+ point offensive display against Florida State. Marshall had some problem with turnovers and lost a surprising game to Akron at home. Louisville’s offense will prove to be too much for the Thundering Herd.
Tyler’s pick: Louisville 42-20
Matt’s pick: Louisville 56-20
13 Florida State (-6) @ South Florida
Florida State is coming off of an embarrassing loss to Louisville. The Noles don’t have time to think about it as they travel for a big game against the Bulls of USF. USF is off to a 3-0 start and the offense has been electrifying behind QB Quinton Flowers.
Tyler’s pick: South Florida 32-28
Matt’s pick: Florida State 35-31
BYU vs. West Virginia (-7)
I wrote last week that BYU has trouble scoring points and after a 14 point output against UCLA that still holds true. WVU on the other hand can air it out and will do just that against the Cougars. It would be a big win for BYU after traveling across the country. I just like Howard and the Mountaineers offense in this one.
Tyler’s pick: BYU 32-27
Matt’s pick: West Virginia 28-21
Pitt @ North Carolina (-7.5)
As a fan I would expect a lot of points in this game. Both defenses are giving up nearly 30+ ppg and a ton of yards. Pitt is going to try to grind it out against a poor UNC rush defense. UNC will look to air it out against a poor Pitt secondary. I am going to take the upset here and roll with James Connor and Pitt.
Tyler’s pick: UNC 38-35
Matt’s pick: Pitt 38-35
18 LSU (-3.5) @ Auburn
This is a must-win game for both programs and both coaches after poor starts. LSU and Auburn are both struggling big time on the offensive side. LSU has made the switch at QB and Auburn has not. LSU is 0-3 ATS and Auburn 2-1. I like the Tigers (Auburn) to win a big game at home behind a great defensive performance on Leonard Fournette.
Tyler’s pick: LSU 24-20
Matt’s pick: Auburn 20-17
Georgia Southern @ Western Michigan (-7)
Ga. Southern averages 356 rushing yards per game and Western Michigan’s defense is allowing only 77.3 rushing yards per game. Western Michigan has the more balanced offense and star players at all positions. I like the Broncos in this one.
Tyler’s pick: WMU 32-30
Matt’s pick: WMU 35-27
Oklahoma State @ 16 Baylor (-9.5)
Baylor is off to a non-surprising 3-0 start after playing cupcakes. Seth Russell hasn’t missed a beat and KD Cannon is playing lights out at WR. James Washington had a breakout performace last week in the win over Pitt. Mason Rudolph has played solid for the Cowboys. The offensive numbers are identical and Baylor’s defensive numbers are a bit skewed due to playing cupcakes. I feel like Oklahoma State still has a chip on their shoulder from the CMU loss and will use that to get a win in Waco.
Tyler’s pick: Baylor 45-27
Matt’s pick: Oklahoma State 38-37
The Big Ones:
11 Wisconsin @ 8 Michigan State (-5.5)
Michigan State proved they are a team that will contend for another B1G East Title. Michigan State dominated Notre Dame to take a 36-7 lead before taking the foot of the pedal and letting the Irish back in the game. Wisconsin is coming off a less than par performance against Georgia State. This is a game that will be won in the trenches. Michigan State at home is key and I like the QB play with O’Connor a little bitter for the Spartans. I think it will be a close one until the 4th when Sparty pulls away.
Tyler’s pick: Michigan State 34-17
Matt’s pick: Michigan State 26-14
10 Texas A&M (-6) vs. 17 Arkansas
This is a big showdown against potential sleeper teams in the SEC West. A&M is coming off a good road win at Auburn. The defense played solid the entire game and offense made some key plays late to ice the game. The issue for A&M was getting points on the board inside the red zone. Arkansas is still riding high after the big win at TCU a couple of weeks ago. Arkansas has played great on the defensive side. Austin Allen has played surprisingly well with 7 passing TD. Trevor Knight hasn’t been the most effective QB but he’s getting the job done for the Aggies. I like the Razorbacks defense a little more than the Aggies so I’m picking another upset. Hogs win in Jerry’s World!
Tyler’s pick: A&M 36-28
Matt’s pick: Arkansas 34-29
7 Stanford (-3) @ UCLA
There is a lot of love out there for Stanford right now but this will be their first major test of the season. I would hardly say that Kansas State and USC are offensive powers and neither compare to what they will see from UCLA. The Bruins average 441 yards per game on offense and Josh Rosen has played well despite some bad decisions. Stanford is one-dimensional on offense with McCaffrey. I expect UCLA to take him away and force Stanford to find another game plan. UCLA’s defense is a bit underrated and they will come up big for the 2nd consecutive week.
Tyler’s pick: UCLA 28-25
Matt’s pick: UCLA 28-27
12 Georgia @ 23 Ole Miss (-7.5)
Ole Miss is off to a 1-2 start which isn’t exactly what Rebel fans had expected. Chad Kelly and the offense have played well but the real concern is with the defense. The Ole Miss defense has been gashed by FSU and Alabama. Georgia has played in two straight close games against Nicholls and at Missouri. Nick Chubb has somewhat disappeared since the season opening performance against UNC. I expect to see a lot more out of Chubb against an Ole Miss defense that has given up 242 yards per game on the ground. Georgia’s defense makes a couple key stops and the Bulldogs shock the Rebels in Oxford.
Tyler’s pick: Ole Miss 32-24
Matt’s pick: Georgia 30-28
19 Florida @ 14 Tennessee (-7)
Both teams suffered key injuries in last week’s ballgames. Tennessee lost it’s best DB and PR in Cam Sutton. Florida will be without starting QB Luke Del Rio. Tennessee haven’t beaten the Gators in 11 seasons, a streak that may cost Butch Jones his job if it continues past this Saturday. Austin Appleby a transfer from Purdue will be the new QB for a Gators offense that is averaging 466 yards per game. Which isn’t surprising if you look at the teams the Gators have played. Similar to the offense, the defense has outstanding numbers by allowing just 130 yards per game.
Tennessee has started to a sluggish 3-0 record. Vols fans are increasingly vocal about the direction of the offense. Offensive line problems are the biggest issue with this Vols offense. The passing game has been non-existent and Josh Dobbs still struggles throwing the deep ball. The key to this game is going to be Josh Dobbs. Tennessee needs to call more direct runs for Dobbs so that it will open up the rushing attack for Hurd and Kamara. We will learn a lot about both teams in this matchup.
Tennessee has benefitted by playing in tight games in the first three weeks. Tennessee struggled in close ballgames in 2015, including the blown lead to Florida. It has to be redemption time for the Volunteers. College Gameday will be there and it is about time Tennessee ends the streak. I am going with the Vols in this one.
Tyler’s pick: Florida 24-23
Matt’s pick: Tennessee 23-13
Below are 15 games that are on my slate of games to watch. Tyler (Mr. Arena Fanatic) and I will give our predictions for each game. Here we go!
Tyler’s totals after week 3: 24/46 (52%)
Matt’s totals after week 3: 30/46 (65%)
Quick Hits:
5 Clemson (-9.5) @ Georgia Tech
Clemson has started slow out of the gate, looked better in a 59-0 win over SCSU. Justin Thomas has the Yellow Jackets 3-0 with wins over BC and Vandy. GT can certainly hang in this game and I think they will but ultimately come up a little short.
Tyler’s pick: Clemson 35-24
Matt’s pick: Clemson 30-27
USC @ 24 Utah (-3)
USC is making a change at QB with redshirt freshman Sam Darnold replacing Max Browne. That spells trouble against a very good Utah defense and a hostile environment. Williams needs to make better decisions for the Utes but I think the defense smothers the USC offense.
Tyler’s pick: USC 27-23
Matt’s pick: Utah 24-13
Penn State @ 4 Michigan (-18.5)
Michigan was tested for a half against Colorado last Saturday. Wilton Speight has played really well in the Wolverines first 3 contests. Saquon Barkley and Chris Godwin have to make plays for Penn State if they want to have a chance in this game.
Tyler’s pick: Michigan 32-20
Matt’s pick: Michigan 38-14
3 Louisville (-25.5) @ Marshall
Lamar Jackson has been on fire in the first 3 weeks of the season. Louisville heads to Marshall after the 60+ point offensive display against Florida State. Marshall had some problem with turnovers and lost a surprising game to Akron at home. Louisville’s offense will prove to be too much for the Thundering Herd.
Tyler’s pick: Louisville 42-20
Matt’s pick: Louisville 56-20
13 Florida State (-6) @ South Florida
Florida State is coming off of an embarrassing loss to Louisville. The Noles don’t have time to think about it as they travel for a big game against the Bulls of USF. USF is off to a 3-0 start and the offense has been electrifying behind QB Quinton Flowers.
Tyler’s pick: South Florida 32-28
Matt’s pick: Florida State 35-31
BYU vs. West Virginia (-7)
I wrote last week that BYU has trouble scoring points and after a 14 point output against UCLA that still holds true. WVU on the other hand can air it out and will do just that against the Cougars. It would be a big win for BYU after traveling across the country. I just like Howard and the Mountaineers offense in this one.
Tyler’s pick: BYU 32-27
Matt’s pick: West Virginia 28-21
Pitt @ North Carolina (-7.5)
As a fan I would expect a lot of points in this game. Both defenses are giving up nearly 30+ ppg and a ton of yards. Pitt is going to try to grind it out against a poor UNC rush defense. UNC will look to air it out against a poor Pitt secondary. I am going to take the upset here and roll with James Connor and Pitt.
Tyler’s pick: UNC 38-35
Matt’s pick: Pitt 38-35
18 LSU (-3.5) @ Auburn
This is a must-win game for both programs and both coaches after poor starts. LSU and Auburn are both struggling big time on the offensive side. LSU has made the switch at QB and Auburn has not. LSU is 0-3 ATS and Auburn 2-1. I like the Tigers (Auburn) to win a big game at home behind a great defensive performance on Leonard Fournette.
Tyler’s pick: LSU 24-20
Matt’s pick: Auburn 20-17
Georgia Southern @ Western Michigan (-7)
Ga. Southern averages 356 rushing yards per game and Western Michigan’s defense is allowing only 77.3 rushing yards per game. Western Michigan has the more balanced offense and star players at all positions. I like the Broncos in this one.
Tyler’s pick: WMU 32-30
Matt’s pick: WMU 35-27
Oklahoma State @ 16 Baylor (-9.5)
Baylor is off to a non-surprising 3-0 start after playing cupcakes. Seth Russell hasn’t missed a beat and KD Cannon is playing lights out at WR. James Washington had a breakout performace last week in the win over Pitt. Mason Rudolph has played solid for the Cowboys. The offensive numbers are identical and Baylor’s defensive numbers are a bit skewed due to playing cupcakes. I feel like Oklahoma State still has a chip on their shoulder from the CMU loss and will use that to get a win in Waco.
Tyler’s pick: Baylor 45-27
Matt’s pick: Oklahoma State 38-37
The Big Ones:
11 Wisconsin @ 8 Michigan State (-5.5)
Michigan State proved they are a team that will contend for another B1G East Title. Michigan State dominated Notre Dame to take a 36-7 lead before taking the foot of the pedal and letting the Irish back in the game. Wisconsin is coming off a less than par performance against Georgia State. This is a game that will be won in the trenches. Michigan State at home is key and I like the QB play with O’Connor a little bitter for the Spartans. I think it will be a close one until the 4th when Sparty pulls away.
Tyler’s pick: Michigan State 34-17
Matt’s pick: Michigan State 26-14
10 Texas A&M (-6) vs. 17 Arkansas
This is a big showdown against potential sleeper teams in the SEC West. A&M is coming off a good road win at Auburn. The defense played solid the entire game and offense made some key plays late to ice the game. The issue for A&M was getting points on the board inside the red zone. Arkansas is still riding high after the big win at TCU a couple of weeks ago. Arkansas has played great on the defensive side. Austin Allen has played surprisingly well with 7 passing TD. Trevor Knight hasn’t been the most effective QB but he’s getting the job done for the Aggies. I like the Razorbacks defense a little more than the Aggies so I’m picking another upset. Hogs win in Jerry’s World!
Tyler’s pick: A&M 36-28
Matt’s pick: Arkansas 34-29
7 Stanford (-3) @ UCLA
There is a lot of love out there for Stanford right now but this will be their first major test of the season. I would hardly say that Kansas State and USC are offensive powers and neither compare to what they will see from UCLA. The Bruins average 441 yards per game on offense and Josh Rosen has played well despite some bad decisions. Stanford is one-dimensional on offense with McCaffrey. I expect UCLA to take him away and force Stanford to find another game plan. UCLA’s defense is a bit underrated and they will come up big for the 2nd consecutive week.
Tyler’s pick: UCLA 28-25
Matt’s pick: UCLA 28-27
12 Georgia @ 23 Ole Miss (-7.5)
Ole Miss is off to a 1-2 start which isn’t exactly what Rebel fans had expected. Chad Kelly and the offense have played well but the real concern is with the defense. The Ole Miss defense has been gashed by FSU and Alabama. Georgia has played in two straight close games against Nicholls and at Missouri. Nick Chubb has somewhat disappeared since the season opening performance against UNC. I expect to see a lot more out of Chubb against an Ole Miss defense that has given up 242 yards per game on the ground. Georgia’s defense makes a couple key stops and the Bulldogs shock the Rebels in Oxford.
Tyler’s pick: Ole Miss 32-24
Matt’s pick: Georgia 30-28
19 Florida @ 14 Tennessee (-7)
Both teams suffered key injuries in last week’s ballgames. Tennessee lost it’s best DB and PR in Cam Sutton. Florida will be without starting QB Luke Del Rio. Tennessee haven’t beaten the Gators in 11 seasons, a streak that may cost Butch Jones his job if it continues past this Saturday. Austin Appleby a transfer from Purdue will be the new QB for a Gators offense that is averaging 466 yards per game. Which isn’t surprising if you look at the teams the Gators have played. Similar to the offense, the defense has outstanding numbers by allowing just 130 yards per game.
Tennessee has started to a sluggish 3-0 record. Vols fans are increasingly vocal about the direction of the offense. Offensive line problems are the biggest issue with this Vols offense. The passing game has been non-existent and Josh Dobbs still struggles throwing the deep ball. The key to this game is going to be Josh Dobbs. Tennessee needs to call more direct runs for Dobbs so that it will open up the rushing attack for Hurd and Kamara. We will learn a lot about both teams in this matchup.
Tennessee has benefitted by playing in tight games in the first three weeks. Tennessee struggled in close ballgames in 2015, including the blown lead to Florida. It has to be redemption time for the Volunteers. College Gameday will be there and it is about time Tennessee ends the streak. I am going with the Vols in this one.
Tyler’s pick: Florida 24-23
Matt’s pick: Tennessee 23-13
Matt's Picks1.Alabama
2. Ohio State 3. Louisville 4. Houston 5. Michigan 6. Clemson 7. Tennessee 8. Michigan State 9. Stanford 10. Texas A&M 11. Georgia 12. Florida State 13. Washington 14. Wisconsin 15. Arkansas 16. Miami 17. Baylor 18. Nebraska 19. Florida 20. Boise State 21. LSU 22. Utah 23. Western Michigan 24. San Diego State 25. North Dakota State Non-Power 5 Top Ten1. Houston (#4 nationally)
2. Boise State (#20 nationally) 3. Western Michigan (#23 nationally) 4. San Diego State (#24 nationally) 5. South Florida 6. Central Michigan 7. Western Kentucky 8. Army 9. Troy 10. Toledo Heisman Top Ten1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
2. J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State 3. Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State 4. Greg Ward Jr, QB Houston 5. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford 6. Pat Mahomes II, QB, Texas Tech 7. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia 8. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson 9. Davis Webb, QB, Cal 10. Wilton Speight, QB, Michigan College Bowls and PlayoffsPeach Bowl: 4 Houston vs. 1 Alabama
Fiesta Bowl: 3 Ohio State vs. 2 Florida State Orange Bowl: Tennessee vs. Louisville Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Texas Cotton Bowl: Clemson vs. Washington Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Stanford |
Tyler's Picks1. Alabama
2. Ohio State 3. Houston 4. Louisville 5. Clemson 6. Georgia 7. Michigan State 8. Boise State 9. Stanford 10. Tennessee 11. Texas A&M 12. Washington 13. Michigan 14. Wisconsin 15. San Diego State 16. Florida State 17. Florida 18. Nebraska 19. Texas 20. North Carolina 21. Iowa 22. LSU 23. Western Michigan 24. Baylor 25. North Dakota State Non-Power 5 Top Ten1. Houston (#3 Houston)
2. Boise State (#8 Nationally) 3. San Diego State (#15 Nationally) 4. Western Michigan (#23 Nationally) 5. South Florida 6. Central Michigan 7. Troy 8. Georgia Southern 9. Toledo 10. Army Heisman Top Ten1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
2. Greg Ward Jr, QB, Houston 3. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson 4. J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State 5. Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State 6. Patrick Mahomes, QB, TTU 7. Davis Webb, QB, Cal 8. Aaron Jones, RB, UTEP 9. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia 10. Chad Hansen, WR, Cal College Bowls and PlayoffsPeach Bowl: 4 Louisville vs. 1 Alabama
Fiesta Bowl: 2 Ohio State vs. 3 Houston Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Michigan St. Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Georgia Cotton Bowl: Boise State vs. Washington Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Michigan State |
