College Football Preview Week 5
By Matt Hetzler
Week 5 has the potential to be a make or break season for a handful of teams. We are starting to see more conference matchups this week. There’s a big showdown in the Pac-12 with Stanford visiting Washington. Tennessee looks to keep the momentum going as they visit Georgia. Michigan hosts an undefeated Wisconsin in a B1G battle. There are a ton of key games in the MAC, we preview the WMU/CMU game. Navy takes on Air Force in a battle of undefeateds. Big 12 favorites Oklahoma and TCU square off in Fort Worth, Oklahoma is looking to avoid a 1-3 start to the season. All eyes will be on Clemson hosting Louisville and Lamar Jackson. Louisville has been flying high but is this the week the momentum stops. I preview all of these games and more below!
Below are 15 games that are on my slate of games to watch. Tyler (Mr. Arena Fanatic) and I will give our predictions for each game. Here we go!
Tyler’s totals after week 4: 32/61 (52%)
Matt’s totals after week 4: 39/61 (64%)
Quick Hits:
North Carolina @ 12 Florida State (-10)
Florida State bounced back with a big win over South Florida last weekend. Florida State put on an offensive clinic against the Bulls and Dalvin Cook put his name back on some Heisman lists with a huge performance. North Carolina on the other hand won a thriller at home over Pittsburgh. Mitch Trubisky is quietly having one of the best seasons by any QB in the country. I expect a ton of points to be scored and a big performance from Dalvin Cook for a second straight week.
Tyler’s pick: Florida State 32-30
Matt’s pick: Florida State 45-33
22 Texas @ Oklahoma State (-2.5)
Texas is back in action after a bye week following the loss at Cal. Texas needs Buechele to be better in this game against a suspect Oklahoma State secondary. The Cowboys are coming off a tough loss at Baylor. Mason Rudolph will be airing it out to his main target James Washington. I expect the Cowboys to bounce back at home.
Tyler’s pick: Texas 42-37
Matt’s pick: Oklahoma State 38-27
18 Utah @ Cal (-2)
Cal returns home after dropping a 51-41 at Arizona State. Davis Webb and the offense are putting up huge numbers. Utah is off to a 4-0 start behind some great defense. Utah’s defense will be the key in this game and cause Webb to make some poor decisions. I like Utah to get a tough win on the road.
Tyler’s pick: Cal 33-28
Matt’s pick: Utah 34-31
Memphis @ 16 Ole Miss (-14)
Memphis is coming off of a 77 point performance against Bowling Green. Riley Ferguson has filled in well for Paxton Lynch. Ole Miss has revenge on its mind after the loss to Memphis last season. Ole Miss dominated Georgia from the start of the game last week. Memphis has yet to play a decent team so I have Ole Miss and Chad Kelly winning big.
Tyler’s pick: Ole Miss 42-17
Matt’s pick: Ole Miss 42-23
Oregon (-2) @ Washington State
Oregon received good news this week as Royce Freeman is expected to play in this game. Oregon is looking for answers after a home loss to Colorado last week. Washington State is off of a bye week and their rush defense has been surprisingly good this season. Luke Falk should have a field day against a terrible Oregon defense. I have little faith in Oregon at this point, with or without Royce Freeman. I’ll take Washington State with the extra week of preparation.
Tyler’s pick: Washington State 44-41
Matt’s pick: Washington State 48-42
Toledo @ BYU (-3.5)
BYU played better offensively against West Virginia but still came away empty on the scoreboard. I look at Toledo and see a team playing well on both sides of the ball, but has yet to face a team of BYU’s caliber. I almost feel like fool here going against BYU at home but I really like what the Rockets bring to the table. Toledo is flying under the radar and has a lot of pieces that beat Arkansas last season. I’m taking the upset in this one.
Tyler’s pick: BYU 26-20
Matt’s pick: Toledo 28-24
Western Michigan (-3.5) @ Central Michigan
I am looking forward to this game! This was the one game in the preseason I figured Western Michigan could lose in conference. Western Michigan has two wins against B1G opponents so far this season and the reason is the Broncos are well balanced on offense. Bogan and Franklin are a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield. When they aren’t handing it off, Zach Terrell is finding Corey Davis is space. Cooper Rush and the Chippewas put up a great fight on the road at Virginia. After falling behind 28-0 this fought back and made it a game. Statistically these two are very similar and something will have to give in this one. After seeing how well this WMU team is playing, I’m not sure they will lose all season. I’m taking the Broncos on the road.
Tyler’s pick: Western Michigan 37-28
Matt’s pick: Western Michigan 38-24
14 Miami (-7.5) @ Georgia Tech
ACC Coastal division showdown between two very good teams. This is Miami’s conference opener after a 3-0 start for the Hurricanes. GT lost a tough game against Clemson last week. Miami’s offense has been great behind the QB play of Brad Kaaya and a heavy dose of Mark Walton on the ground. Miami’s defense is allowing only 65 rushing yards per game. GT needs Justin Thomas to come up big in this game. Miami appears to have too much talent for GT to get the upset, I like the Canes here.
Tyler’s pick: Miami 27-21
Matt’s pick: Miami 28-16
Navy @ Air Force (-7.5)
Both teams are undefeated coming into this big matchup on Saturday. Both teams like to grind it out on the ground with the option attack. It’s amazing how identical the statistics are in this game. Here is the one that sticks out to me the most. Air Force is allowing only 51.7 yards on the ground defensively. Navy is going to have a tough time finding holes on that defense. On a neutral field this game is probably a pick’em but Air Force has the home field advantage and I’ll roll with them.
Tyler’s pick: Air Force 32-27
Matt’s pick: Air Force 28-14
South Florida (-6) @ Cincinnati
This is a big game for both teams in the East division of the AAC. These are certainly the top two teams so a win here will boost their chances of playing for a championship. South Florida is coming off of a blowout loss to Florida State and UC had a narrow victory over Miami (OH). The key in this game will be the USF offense behind Quinton Flowers and Marlon Mack. UC played a solid game against Houston before disaster struck in the 4th quarter. I expect this to be a really tight game but I think the Bulls offense makes one more big play than UC.
Tyler’s pick: South Florida 35-24
Matt’s pick: South Florida 42-38
The Big Ones:
8 Wisconsin @ 4 Michigan (-10.5)
This is a huge showdown in Ann Arbor this weekend! Wisconsin has been the surprise of the season to me. Wins over LSU and at Michigan State last week have the Badgers looking like the best team in the West. Michigan has yet to play a team worth noting. This is going to be a big stage for the Wolverines to lay a beat down on Wisconsin. Even with the road win at Michigan State I am not a believer in Wisconsin. I fully expect the Michigan D to dominate the Badgers and force a few TO’s. I don’t see how this is a close game, I like Michigan to roll again.
Tyler’s pick: Michigan 27-20
Matt’s pick: Michigan 31-6
7 Stanford @ 10 Washington (-3.5)
Stanford goes back on the road for a big PAC-12 North showdown with Washington. Stanford escaped with a win over UCLA last week and Arizona, yes Arizona took Washington to OT. What bothers me is that Washington is ranked in the top ten and I want to know why. Here is their chance to prove it to me. Washington has some really good players on the offensive side of the ball. Jake Browning has 14 TD passes to only 2 INT. Myles Gaskin is getting things done on the ground. Washington has tremendous balance on offense. Stanford has Christian McCaffrey but will that be enough against a good Washington defense? I said last week Stanford was in a must-win 2 game stretch if they want to make the CFP. This feels like a game that David Shaw and Stanford is going to win, so I will go with my gut.
Tyler’s pick: Washington 27-24
Matt’s pick: Stanford 24-18
Oklahoma (-3.5) @ 21 TCU
Oklahoma is looking to avoid a disastrous 1-3 start when the Sooners visit the Horned Frogs on Saturday. During the preseason I talked about how I liked TCU’s defense better than I did OU’s and that still stands true. TCU has played the rush fairly well in the early season. Samaje Perine has disappeared from the Oklahoma offense. Baker Mayfield cannot win games alone and he’s been held in check in both losses. Kenny Hill has been explosive for TCU. Hill does make some poor decisions from time to time so that is something to watch in this game. Turnovers could end up deciding this game because both of these teams are mirror images of each other. TCU was my pick to win the Big 12 so I have to ride them in this game. TCU wins an entertaining game!
Tyler’s pick: TCU 42-40
Matt’s pick: TCU 38-32
11 Tennessee (-3) @ 25 Georgia
Rocky Top Tennessee got the monkey off their back last week with a win of Florida. Tennessee enters this game on cloud nine and that could allow the Georgia Bulldogs to get a big win. Georgia was searching for anything positive after last week’s embarrassing performance at Ole Miss. Josh Dobbs played much better in the second half against the Gators, putting on quite a show. Josh Malone is his go-to guy with 5 TD’s on only 13 catches. Chad Kelly picked apart the Dawgs secondary so I would expect Tennessee to open up the playbook a bit more. Nick Chubb sprained an ankle in the loss to Ole Miss and his gruesome leg injury occurred against the Vols last year. Chubb if 100% could really give Georgia a boost to beat the Vols. Tennessee’s secondary is vulnerable so Eason needs to have a good game. This game is going to be close for 3 quarters but I give Tennessee the edge and see them pulling away late.
Tyler’s pick: Tennessee 32-20
Matt’s pick: Tennessee 35-26
3 Louisville (-2) @ 5 Clemson
How many people thought that Louisville would be ranked above Clemson when they met in the preseason? I’d say only the guys at Arena Fanatic were this high on the Cards. Personally I was hammered for suggesting Deshaun Watson wasn’t the best QB in CFB during the offseason. I didn’t even have Lamar Jackson ranked ahead of him on that particular list. There is no doubt right now who the better QB is in this game, Lamar Jackson.
Clemson’s defense has been good so far in this young season, but have they been tested? Troy possibly had the best offensive performance against them. I’m not buying into Clemson on the defensive side just yet. The biggest concern for every analyst is the performance of the offense. Watson has been fine but the players around him are struggling and the offensive line play has been spotty. Louisville has some big time talent on the defensive side and they are going to throw everything they have at Watson.
There isn’t much to say about Lamar Jackson that hasn’t already been said after 4 weeks. He is a tremendous talent and a true dual threat QB. Jackson has 25 total TD’s in 4 games meaning he is on pace to score 75 TD in the regular season. I know it’s early in the season but if Jackson has big performance they can go ahead and give him the Heisman. Something has to give in this game with Louisville averaging 682 yards of offense and Clemson’s D allowing only 218.5. I’m going all in on the Cardinals and I think they blowout the Tigers on Saturday.
Tyler’s pick: Clemson 27-26
Matt’s pick: Louisville 42-23
Below are 15 games that are on my slate of games to watch. Tyler (Mr. Arena Fanatic) and I will give our predictions for each game. Here we go!
Tyler’s totals after week 4: 32/61 (52%)
Matt’s totals after week 4: 39/61 (64%)
Quick Hits:
North Carolina @ 12 Florida State (-10)
Florida State bounced back with a big win over South Florida last weekend. Florida State put on an offensive clinic against the Bulls and Dalvin Cook put his name back on some Heisman lists with a huge performance. North Carolina on the other hand won a thriller at home over Pittsburgh. Mitch Trubisky is quietly having one of the best seasons by any QB in the country. I expect a ton of points to be scored and a big performance from Dalvin Cook for a second straight week.
Tyler’s pick: Florida State 32-30
Matt’s pick: Florida State 45-33
22 Texas @ Oklahoma State (-2.5)
Texas is back in action after a bye week following the loss at Cal. Texas needs Buechele to be better in this game against a suspect Oklahoma State secondary. The Cowboys are coming off a tough loss at Baylor. Mason Rudolph will be airing it out to his main target James Washington. I expect the Cowboys to bounce back at home.
Tyler’s pick: Texas 42-37
Matt’s pick: Oklahoma State 38-27
18 Utah @ Cal (-2)
Cal returns home after dropping a 51-41 at Arizona State. Davis Webb and the offense are putting up huge numbers. Utah is off to a 4-0 start behind some great defense. Utah’s defense will be the key in this game and cause Webb to make some poor decisions. I like Utah to get a tough win on the road.
Tyler’s pick: Cal 33-28
Matt’s pick: Utah 34-31
Memphis @ 16 Ole Miss (-14)
Memphis is coming off of a 77 point performance against Bowling Green. Riley Ferguson has filled in well for Paxton Lynch. Ole Miss has revenge on its mind after the loss to Memphis last season. Ole Miss dominated Georgia from the start of the game last week. Memphis has yet to play a decent team so I have Ole Miss and Chad Kelly winning big.
Tyler’s pick: Ole Miss 42-17
Matt’s pick: Ole Miss 42-23
Oregon (-2) @ Washington State
Oregon received good news this week as Royce Freeman is expected to play in this game. Oregon is looking for answers after a home loss to Colorado last week. Washington State is off of a bye week and their rush defense has been surprisingly good this season. Luke Falk should have a field day against a terrible Oregon defense. I have little faith in Oregon at this point, with or without Royce Freeman. I’ll take Washington State with the extra week of preparation.
Tyler’s pick: Washington State 44-41
Matt’s pick: Washington State 48-42
Toledo @ BYU (-3.5)
BYU played better offensively against West Virginia but still came away empty on the scoreboard. I look at Toledo and see a team playing well on both sides of the ball, but has yet to face a team of BYU’s caliber. I almost feel like fool here going against BYU at home but I really like what the Rockets bring to the table. Toledo is flying under the radar and has a lot of pieces that beat Arkansas last season. I’m taking the upset in this one.
Tyler’s pick: BYU 26-20
Matt’s pick: Toledo 28-24
Western Michigan (-3.5) @ Central Michigan
I am looking forward to this game! This was the one game in the preseason I figured Western Michigan could lose in conference. Western Michigan has two wins against B1G opponents so far this season and the reason is the Broncos are well balanced on offense. Bogan and Franklin are a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield. When they aren’t handing it off, Zach Terrell is finding Corey Davis is space. Cooper Rush and the Chippewas put up a great fight on the road at Virginia. After falling behind 28-0 this fought back and made it a game. Statistically these two are very similar and something will have to give in this one. After seeing how well this WMU team is playing, I’m not sure they will lose all season. I’m taking the Broncos on the road.
Tyler’s pick: Western Michigan 37-28
Matt’s pick: Western Michigan 38-24
14 Miami (-7.5) @ Georgia Tech
ACC Coastal division showdown between two very good teams. This is Miami’s conference opener after a 3-0 start for the Hurricanes. GT lost a tough game against Clemson last week. Miami’s offense has been great behind the QB play of Brad Kaaya and a heavy dose of Mark Walton on the ground. Miami’s defense is allowing only 65 rushing yards per game. GT needs Justin Thomas to come up big in this game. Miami appears to have too much talent for GT to get the upset, I like the Canes here.
Tyler’s pick: Miami 27-21
Matt’s pick: Miami 28-16
Navy @ Air Force (-7.5)
Both teams are undefeated coming into this big matchup on Saturday. Both teams like to grind it out on the ground with the option attack. It’s amazing how identical the statistics are in this game. Here is the one that sticks out to me the most. Air Force is allowing only 51.7 yards on the ground defensively. Navy is going to have a tough time finding holes on that defense. On a neutral field this game is probably a pick’em but Air Force has the home field advantage and I’ll roll with them.
Tyler’s pick: Air Force 32-27
Matt’s pick: Air Force 28-14
South Florida (-6) @ Cincinnati
This is a big game for both teams in the East division of the AAC. These are certainly the top two teams so a win here will boost their chances of playing for a championship. South Florida is coming off of a blowout loss to Florida State and UC had a narrow victory over Miami (OH). The key in this game will be the USF offense behind Quinton Flowers and Marlon Mack. UC played a solid game against Houston before disaster struck in the 4th quarter. I expect this to be a really tight game but I think the Bulls offense makes one more big play than UC.
Tyler’s pick: South Florida 35-24
Matt’s pick: South Florida 42-38
The Big Ones:
8 Wisconsin @ 4 Michigan (-10.5)
This is a huge showdown in Ann Arbor this weekend! Wisconsin has been the surprise of the season to me. Wins over LSU and at Michigan State last week have the Badgers looking like the best team in the West. Michigan has yet to play a team worth noting. This is going to be a big stage for the Wolverines to lay a beat down on Wisconsin. Even with the road win at Michigan State I am not a believer in Wisconsin. I fully expect the Michigan D to dominate the Badgers and force a few TO’s. I don’t see how this is a close game, I like Michigan to roll again.
Tyler’s pick: Michigan 27-20
Matt’s pick: Michigan 31-6
7 Stanford @ 10 Washington (-3.5)
Stanford goes back on the road for a big PAC-12 North showdown with Washington. Stanford escaped with a win over UCLA last week and Arizona, yes Arizona took Washington to OT. What bothers me is that Washington is ranked in the top ten and I want to know why. Here is their chance to prove it to me. Washington has some really good players on the offensive side of the ball. Jake Browning has 14 TD passes to only 2 INT. Myles Gaskin is getting things done on the ground. Washington has tremendous balance on offense. Stanford has Christian McCaffrey but will that be enough against a good Washington defense? I said last week Stanford was in a must-win 2 game stretch if they want to make the CFP. This feels like a game that David Shaw and Stanford is going to win, so I will go with my gut.
Tyler’s pick: Washington 27-24
Matt’s pick: Stanford 24-18
Oklahoma (-3.5) @ 21 TCU
Oklahoma is looking to avoid a disastrous 1-3 start when the Sooners visit the Horned Frogs on Saturday. During the preseason I talked about how I liked TCU’s defense better than I did OU’s and that still stands true. TCU has played the rush fairly well in the early season. Samaje Perine has disappeared from the Oklahoma offense. Baker Mayfield cannot win games alone and he’s been held in check in both losses. Kenny Hill has been explosive for TCU. Hill does make some poor decisions from time to time so that is something to watch in this game. Turnovers could end up deciding this game because both of these teams are mirror images of each other. TCU was my pick to win the Big 12 so I have to ride them in this game. TCU wins an entertaining game!
Tyler’s pick: TCU 42-40
Matt’s pick: TCU 38-32
11 Tennessee (-3) @ 25 Georgia
Rocky Top Tennessee got the monkey off their back last week with a win of Florida. Tennessee enters this game on cloud nine and that could allow the Georgia Bulldogs to get a big win. Georgia was searching for anything positive after last week’s embarrassing performance at Ole Miss. Josh Dobbs played much better in the second half against the Gators, putting on quite a show. Josh Malone is his go-to guy with 5 TD’s on only 13 catches. Chad Kelly picked apart the Dawgs secondary so I would expect Tennessee to open up the playbook a bit more. Nick Chubb sprained an ankle in the loss to Ole Miss and his gruesome leg injury occurred against the Vols last year. Chubb if 100% could really give Georgia a boost to beat the Vols. Tennessee’s secondary is vulnerable so Eason needs to have a good game. This game is going to be close for 3 quarters but I give Tennessee the edge and see them pulling away late.
Tyler’s pick: Tennessee 32-20
Matt’s pick: Tennessee 35-26
3 Louisville (-2) @ 5 Clemson
How many people thought that Louisville would be ranked above Clemson when they met in the preseason? I’d say only the guys at Arena Fanatic were this high on the Cards. Personally I was hammered for suggesting Deshaun Watson wasn’t the best QB in CFB during the offseason. I didn’t even have Lamar Jackson ranked ahead of him on that particular list. There is no doubt right now who the better QB is in this game, Lamar Jackson.
Clemson’s defense has been good so far in this young season, but have they been tested? Troy possibly had the best offensive performance against them. I’m not buying into Clemson on the defensive side just yet. The biggest concern for every analyst is the performance of the offense. Watson has been fine but the players around him are struggling and the offensive line play has been spotty. Louisville has some big time talent on the defensive side and they are going to throw everything they have at Watson.
There isn’t much to say about Lamar Jackson that hasn’t already been said after 4 weeks. He is a tremendous talent and a true dual threat QB. Jackson has 25 total TD’s in 4 games meaning he is on pace to score 75 TD in the regular season. I know it’s early in the season but if Jackson has big performance they can go ahead and give him the Heisman. Something has to give in this game with Louisville averaging 682 yards of offense and Clemson’s D allowing only 218.5. I’m going all in on the Cardinals and I think they blowout the Tigers on Saturday.
Tyler’s pick: Clemson 27-26
Matt’s pick: Louisville 42-23
Matt's PicksTop 251. Alabama
2. Ohio State 3. Louisville 4. Houston 5. Michigan 6. Tennessee 7. Clemson 8. Texas A&M 9. Wisconsin 10. Stanford 11. Florida State 12. Baylor 13. Washington 14. Nebraska 15. Miami 16. Boise State 17. Utah 18. Arkansas 19. Michigan State 20. Ole Miss 21. San Diego State 22. Western Michigan 23. Arizona State 24. Georgia 25. TCU Non-Power 5 Top Ten1. Houston (#4 nationally)
2. Boise State (#16 nationally) 3. Western Michigan (#22 nationally) 4. San Diego State (#21 nationally) 5. Toledo 6. Air Force 7. Navy 8. Troy 9. Cincinnati 10. Memphis Heisman Top Ten1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
2. J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State 3. Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State 4. Greg Ward Jr, QB Houston 5. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford 6. Pat Mahomes II, QB, Texas Tech 7. Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina 8. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia 9. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson 10. Chad Kelly, QB, Ole Miss New Years Six and PlayoffsPeach Bowl: 4 Houston vs. 1 Alabama
Fiesta Bowl: 3 Louisville vs. 2 Ohio State Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Wisconsin Sugar Bowl: Tennessee vs. Baylor Cotton Bowl: Florida State vs. Texas A&M Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Stanford |
Tyler's PicksTop 251. Alabama
2. Ohio State 3. Houston 4. Louisville 5. Clemson 6. Stanford 7. Michigan 8. Boise State 9. Wisconsin 10. Tennessee 11. Texas A&M 12. Washington 13. San Diego State 14. Florida State 15. Nebraska 16. North Carolina 17. Miami 18. Baylor 19. Georgia 20. Western Michigan 21. Baylor 22. Ole Miss 23. Utah 24. TCU 25. North Dakota State Non-Power 5 Top Ten1. Houston (#3 Houston)
2. Boise State (#8 Nationally) 3. San Diego State (#13 Nationally) 4. Western Michigan (#20 Nationally) 5. South Florida 6. Central Michigan 7. Troy 8. Air Force 9. Toledo 10. Navy Heisman Top Ten1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
2. Greg Ward Jr, QB, Houston 3. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson 4. J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State 5. Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State 6. Patrick Mahomes, QB, TTU 7. Davis Webb, QB, Cal 8. Aaron Jones, RB, UTEP 9. Amba Etta-Tawo, WR, Syracuse 10. Chad Hansen, WR, Cal New Years Six and PlayoffsPeach Bowl: 4 Louisville vs. 1 Alabama
Fiesta Bowl: 2 Ohio State vs. 3 Houston Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Wisconsin Sugar Bowl: Tennessee vs. Baylor Cotton Bowl: Boise State vs. Texas A&M Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Michigan |
