Last week I went 3-3 ATS. 1/5 on O/U and 1/5 on ML underdog picks in what was a forgetful week.
Week 2 total: 5/16 (31.25%)
*Favorites in bold.
Florida State @ Louisville Open Line: -2 Current Line: -1
Big time game in Louisville! Both offenses are the talk of the town but I think the defenses are a little underrated heading into this game. Francois is in his first true road game and the Papa John’s stadium will be rocking. Lamar Jackson is at the the top of my Heisman list. I think this is going to be a wild game but I like the Noles defense to make some key stops late.
The Pick: Florida State 34, Louisville 30.
UCLA @ BYU Open Line: -1.5 Current Line: -3
BYU has had trouble scoring the ball in the first couple games. UCLA has already been on the road in a hostile environment which I think helps them in this game. UCLA and Josh Rosen should be able to spread the ball against the Cougars D. This will be a tight game but I am giving the edge to UCLA here.
The Pick: UCLA 24, BYU 20
Pittsburgh @ Oklahoma State Open Line:-6.5 Current Line: -4.5
The line has moved in Pitt’s favor over the past few days. I think it may be an overreaction to the CMU win over OK State. Pitt’s defense gave up 39 points to a average at best Penn State team. Oklahoma State and Mason Rudolph will score early and often. I like the Cowboys to make a statement here at home over Pitt.
The Pick: Oklahoma St 38, Pitt 27
3 Ohio State @ 14 Oklahoma Open Line: -2 Current Line: -1.5
The headline in this game will be J.T. Barrett against Baker Mayfield. Ohio State has been dominating on defense in the first two weeks including shutting down a very good Tulsa offense. Oklahoma has given up some yards defensively and appeared to roll over in week 1. Ohio State has to start fast and really put the Sooners on their heels. If Oklahoma can hang around and control the momentum I like them to win. However, I really like what Ohio State is doing on both sides of the ball and I think they have too many playmakers to lose this game.
The Pick: Ohio State 45, Oklahoma 31
12 Michigan State @ 18 Notre Dame Open Line: -7.5 Current Line: -8
Michigan State is coming off of a bye and ND bounced back for a win against Nevada. ND has a star QB in Kizer but I really like the Spartans defense in these types of ball games. Michigan State is going to try to grind the game out with L.J. Scott and hit one or two home run plays. This should be a low scoring slugfest which favors Michigan State and the points. I am taking Michigan State with the upset here but I think the points is one of the best bets of the week.
The Pick: Michigan State 20, Notre Dame 17
*Lock it Up Pick: Alabama @ Ole Miss Open Line: 9 Current Line: -11.5
I usually don’t give reasoning on my lock of the week but I am taking Ole Miss because 11.5 points is a lot in this rivalry. Hurts is starting in his first true road game and Chad Kelly can keep the Rebels in the ballgame. Alabama wins but it won’t be a blow out.
The Pick: Alabama 38, Ole Miss 28
Top Over/Under Bets
- Duke @ Northwestern O/U 44 The Pick: Under 44
- South Florida @ Syracuse O/U 74 The Pick: Over 74
- Army @ UTEP O/U 46.5 The Pick: Over 46.5
- Colorado @ Michigan O/U 56 The Pick: Over 56
- Western Michigan @ Illinois O/U 54 The Pick: Over 54
Upset Alert (Moneyline Underdogs)
*Games that are worth a look.
- Michigan State over Notre Dame
- Vanderbilt over Georgia Tech
- Bowling Green over Middle Tennessee
- Virginia over UConn
- Cal over Texas